By James Kirkup in Basra

Maj Gen Andy Salmon told The Daily Telegraph that following months of steady improvements in the security situation in Iraq’s second city, the rate of violent crime and murder in Basra has fallen below some major British cities.

“On a per capita basis, if you look at the violence statistics, it is less dangerous than Manchester,” he said, hailing a “radical transformation” in Iraq’s prospects.

Since an Iraqi government offensive largely routed violent insurgent groups in Basra last May, British officials in Iraq say that the city has become ever more secure and stable and the Iraqi security forces increasingly competent.

In the latest sign of progress after years of insurgent attacks on British and Iraqi forces, local elections last month passed off without significant violence.

“In a nutshell, Basra is stable,” said Maj Gen Salmon.

The general, a Royal Marine Commando, also jokingly compared Basra and Stockwell in south London where he once lived. Asked where he would rather spend a Saturday night, he replied: “Downtown Basra, in the restaurants, enjoying myself.”

He said: “It’s pretty normal down there: people going about their business, the nights bustle, people are enjoying themselves, kids are playing in parks. People are concerned about the normal things you’d be concerned by: jobs, the delivery of essential services, their future prosperity.”

The improved security situation was witnessed by Bob Ainsworth, the Armed Forces minister, who this week visited Basra. Previously, visiting ministers have been confined to secure military bases, but Mr Ainsworth was able to walk the streets of the city and meet locals.

Almost every one of the Iraqis Mr Ainsworth spoke to named the economy and unemployment as their main concern instead of the security worries that predominated in earlier years.

Mr Ainsworth said he had seen “nothing but progress” on his visit and said his walkabout was proof that Basra has been transformed.

He said he was concerned that British people did not realise how much southern Iraq has changed in recent months. “Most people back home haven’t caught up with the reality of what has gone on on the ground,” he said.

Maj Gen Salmon said the improving security situation is largely down to the presence of very large Iraqi army and police forces: there are more than 30,000 Iraqi security forces in a city of more than 2 million. He said: “The risks are diminishing on a monthly basis. Security, as far as the population is concerned, has ceased to be a concern.”

According to British military estimates, the murder rate in Basra fell from 22 in October to 11 in January. Only one of January’s deaths has been linked to extremist groups; the rest were “old-fashioned” crimes.

Maj Gen Salmon will be Britain’s last general officer commanding forces in Iraq. Starting next month, he will oversee the withdrawal of all but around 400 troops who will remain to train Iraqi forces.

Accepting that the British presence in Iraq since the 2003 invasion has been intensely controversial, the general insisted that the results are now positive.

“We have been through some ups and downs, but the fact is, we have stayed and endured and we have ridden the ups and downs,” he said. “We had an opportunity to get behind the Iraqis, get them on their feet. That’s what we have done.”

After the UK “drawdown,” the main British base outside Basra will be taken over by American forces.

Maj Gen Salmon was insistent that there is no question of the British leaving with tasks unfinished, forcing the Americans to take over their work.

Both Basra and Greater Manchester have around 2.5 million people.

According to Greater Manchester Police, there were 46 murders in Greater Manchester in the last 11 months of 2008 alone.

However, the total number of violent attacks was 6.4 per cent down on the previous year.

The number of robberies increased. Between April and June 2008 here were 270 such crimes, compared to 285 between July and September.

The General expressed his appreciation of the UK’s contribution when he met British Defence Secretary John Hutton and other civilian and military leaders at the Ministry of Defence to discuss routine business.

The visit was a routine stop as part of a larger visit by the General to visit other NATO allies. A wide range of important issues were discussed at the MOD and General Petraeus said:

“The visit highlights Central Command’s engagement with our NATO partners to reiterate the strategic importance of the alliance and the critical role it plays in the Mid-East region and especially in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“The United Kingdom is a strategic partner and we value the strong military and civilian co-operation between our two countries that advances our common goals of peace and security in the Mid-East. We have in recent years stood together against forces and elements that have sought to destabilise the region.

“The significance of the United Kingdom’s contribution should not be underestimated. Its military activities and non-military assistance have been instrumental in successful capacity- building and the progress that we have made in various endeavours.

“I want to thank the UK in particular for the great contribution it has made, military and non-military, in Iraq and Afghanistan.”

By James Kirkup in Basra

British military and intelligence officials in Iraq are confident that Mr Sadr’s political allies have been all but routed in the elections.

Iraq held local elections last weekend which passed off largely peacefully with results set to be formally declared on Feb 22.

Unofficial accounts of the results in Basra suggest that Sadrist parties will take only one or two of the thirty-five seats in Iraq’s second city, where 4,000 British troops are stationed awaiting their final withdrawal later this year.

British officials see the political setback as the latest sign of Mr Sadr’s diminished importance in southern Iraq.

Less than two years ago, Mr Sadr and his followers appeared to be the most powerful group in Iraqi politics, threatening the prospects of the country’s western-backed government.

But a high-stakes military operation in Basra last year launched by the Iraqi government with British military support dealt a severe blow to Mr Sadr’s status and influence. He had backed militant groups attempting to control Basra which were effectively destroyed by government forces under the prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki.

Mr Maliki’s political allies are expected to make the biggest gains in Basra, something British officials say will facilitate the UK withdrawal from the country, which is set to begin in May.

Mr Maliki is expected to replace the current governor of Basra with one of his own allies, consolidating central government control over the oil rich south and long, British commanders hope, furthering the development of the Iraqi army as a reliable military force.

Mr Sadr meanwhile remains in Iran whose Shia Muslim leadership had backed his attempts to exert influence over Iraq.

Some British sources are even questioning whether Mr Sadr will return from Iran, speculating that his standing has been irrevocably undermined over the past year.

“Sadr gambled against Maliki and the result was that Sadr lost and Maliki won,” one British source said.

Provisional election results expected to be released as early as Friday are expected to show that Mr Sadr; s allies polled fewer than 30,000 votes in Basra.

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His coalition won victories in Baghdad and Basra, and emerged as the largest group across the mainly Shia provinces of southern Iraq.

The other major city, Mosul, saw a strong result for a Sunni faction which boycotted the last elections.

Saturday’s ballot was the first major poll held in the country since 2005.

The preliminary results, which are subject to appeal and review, confirmed what many anecdotal and unofficial accounts had already claimed, that the State of Law Coalition, headed by the prime minister, has come out very strongly in Shia and mixed areas.

Disappointed

It took 37% of the votes in Basra, 38% in Baghdad, and was ahead of the competition in most of the largely Shia south.

This happened at the expense of what was the biggest Shia faction, the Supreme Islamic Council in Iraq, regarded as close to Iran, and running under a different name.

Followers of the militant Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr will also be disappointed by their results.

Among the most closely watched returns were those for the mainly Sunni province of al-Anbar, to the west of Baghdad, where tribal leaders had threatened to take up arms if rival Sunni political parties came out on top.

The results showed one of the traditional parties just half a percentage point ahead of the main tribal coalition, with their chief adversaries coming in third.

It is perhaps a good enough result for the tribal factions to head off trouble, though a pre-emptive curfew has been declared there.

Further north in Mosul, as expected, a newly-formed Sunni faction came out well ahead of Kurdish groups, restoring political balance in an area where Sunnis are the majority.

The electoral commission says it is investigating many claims of election irregularities and the final results may be amended in the coming weeks if they are justified.

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